Indian economy grows 8.9 percent

By James Lamont, FT.com

November 30, 2010 -- Updated 0654 GMT (1454 HKT)

The Indian economy grew at a faster rate than analysts predicted.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• India's economy grew at 8.9 percent in the second quarter
• Growth faster than the previous three months of brisk gains

RELATED TOPICS

• India
• Business

(FT) -- India's economy grew at 8.9 percent in the second quarter, an acceleration from the brisk growth rate posted for the previous three months.

The figures, released on Tuesday, surpassed analysts' expectations that the economy would fall short of the 8.8 percent year-on-year growth it recorded in the April to June quarter.

Manmohan Singh, India's prime minister, has forecast that the economy will expand 8.5 percent this year, after growing 7.4 percent last year, despite a severe drought that hit farm production and contributed to sky-rocketing food prices.

The prime minister predicts that an economy propelled by buoyant domestic demand has the capacity to climb towards 10 percent growth in the coming two years to rival Chinese rates of growth.

Rajeev Malik, economist at CLSA, said that growth had become "sacred" in India and that the government's challenge was to keep a steady momentum and avoid at all costs any shocks to growth.

A Reuters poll had recorded predictions ranging from 7.2 percent to 9 percent for the latest quarter.

Confirmation of the fast-growing output in Asia's third largest economy by India's statistical office will offer temporary respite to the Congress party-led government, which is currently beset by a number of damaging corruption scandals. These have exposed an unhealthy interaction between business and government that is widely suspected but rarely put on public display.

The government has strongly appealed to India's voters with the mantra of "inclusive growth", which aims to share the high rates of growth recorded in the country's industrial hubs and large cities with the poorer areas.

But recent revelations of alleged crony capitalism among key ministries and big business threaten to erode public confidence in the state and its institutions.

India's strong economic growth comes against a background of tightening monetary policy as the Reserve Bank of India tries to encourage growth while fighting stubbornly high inflation.

The central bank has steadily raised interest rates over the past year, unwinding an ultra-loose policy stance adopted to combat the effects of the global financial crisis.

The RBI is expected to pause until the first quarter of next year, when another 25 basis points rise in the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks, is likely.

Rohini Malkani, economist at Citigroup, said India's growth had now bounced back to near pre-financial crisis levels. However, she cautioned that inflation remained a worry as rising incomes, changing diets and low productivity continued to put pressure on agricultural commodities. She also said increased fuel costs in a country still heavily dependent on imported oil could also lead to rising prices.

Another concern is the paucity of foreign direct investment at a time of increased short term capital inflows from the west.

"While capital flows are likely to be more than sufficient, a key concern is the composition of flows. Recent trends indicate a deceleration in FDI. This is a concern," Ms Malkani said.

Earlier this month, Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the RBI warned on the FT's beyondbrics blog that India needed a "quantum step" in investment if it was to reach its goal of double digit growth.

Infrastructure is identified by many policymakers as the key sector for investment, but some global business leaders, notably Jeff Immelt, the head General Electric, have complained about an inability to execute projects that has left India badly trailing China.

India has recorded a sharp 18.8 percent drop in its foreign direct investment inflows, to $10.78bn, during the first six months of 2010.

© The Financial Times Limited 2010

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/11/30/india.economy.gdp.ft/index.html?hpt=Sbin

North Korea warns of all-out war

By the CNN Wire Staff

November 30, 2010 -- Updated 0908 GMT (1708 HKT)

South Korean soldiers march on a beach in Taean southwest of Seoul as part of joint U.S. military exercises on Sunday.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• North Korea continues to protest U.S. and South Korea's military drills
• The U.S. and South Korean drills will go on until Friday
• The drills are a response to the sinking of a South Korean ship, the U.S. has said

(CNN) -- North Korea warned Tuesday that the continuing military drills by the United States and South Korea could lead to "all-out war any time."

The firmly-worded message was published in North Korea's state-run KCNA news service.

"If the U.S. and the South Korean war-like forces fire even a shell into the inviolable land and territorial waters of the DPRK, they will have to pay dearly for this," the news service report said.

South Korea and the United States launched joint anti-submarine military exercises on Monday, drawing consternation from North Korea.

Seoul and Washington postponed the exercises earlier this month because of a tropical storm.

The drills, which are to run through Friday, are "designed to send a clear message of deterrence to North Korea," U.S. Forces Korea have said.

U.S. officials have said the exercises off the western coast of the Korean peninsula are in response to North Korea's sinking of a South Korean warship in March.

Leak exposes China's N. Korea views

RELATED TOPICS

• North Korea
• Diplomacy
• South Korea

In May, a report from South Korea blamed the North for sinking the Cheonan warship with a torpedo, killing 46 sailors.

North Korea denies sinking the ship and says South Korea and the United States are using it as a pretext to conduct the war games.

The drills also come after the November 23 shelling of a South Korean island by North Korea. The attack on Yeonpyeong Island killed four South Koreans and injured 15 others.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/30/koreas.crisis/index.html?hpt=T2

Korut klaim miliki ribuan sentrifugal nuklir

Selasa, 30/11/2010 11:23 WIB
Korut klaim miliki ribuan sentrifugal nuklir
BBCIndonesia.com - detikNews

Korut mengatakan program nuklir mereka untuk kepentingan damai

Pemerintah Korea Utara mengatakan mereka memiliki ribuan sentrifugal nuklir di fasilitas yang baru diumumkan ke masyarakat internasional bulan ini.

"Untuk tahap ini kami sedang membangun reaktor air dan untuk memenuhi permintaan, kami mengoperasikan sistem pengayaan uranium modern," kata pejabat Korut seperti dikutip kantor berita Korut, KCNA.

"Kami memiliki ribuan sentrifugal," tambahnya.

Belum diketahui apakah sentrifugal ini bisa dimanfaatkan untuk membuat senjata nuklir.

Ilmuwan Amerika Serikat, Siegfried Hecker telah berkunjung ke fasilitas nuklir Korut tersebut namun tidak bisa memastikan apakah fasilitas bisa beroperasi.

Ia hanya menyebut bahwa berbagai peralatan nuklir di dekat ibukota Pyongyang tersebut luar biasa.

BEROPERASI PADA 2012

Pyongyang mengatakan reaktor tersebut bisa dioperasikan sepenuhnya pada 2012 dan dimanfaatkan untuk menghasilkan listrik.

Pemerintah Korea Utara memastikan bahwa sentrifugal bisa digunakan untuk melakukan pengayaan uranium.

Klaim Pyongyang dikeluarkan ketika ketegangan di Semenanjung Korea masih tinggi menyusul serangan artileri Korut ke Pulau Yeonpyong sepekan silam, menewaskan empat orang.

Klaim ini besar kemungkinan juga akan semakin membuat Korsel khawatir. Senin (29/11) kemarin Presiden Korsel Lee Myung-bak menegaskan akan ada balasan atas apa yang ia sebut provokasi Pyonyang.

Pyongyang mengatakan serangan ini merupakan balasan atas latihan militer Korea Selatan di dekat Yeonpyong.

Korut menggambarkan latihan militer gabungan Korsel-Amerika Serikat di Laut Kuning, yang tengah berlangsung di dekat garis perbataan yang disengketakan, sebagai tindakan provokatif.

Dalam latihan militer selama empat hari, Korsel dan AS mengerahkan berbagai peralatan perang termasuk kapal induk USS George Washington.

(bbc/bbc)

http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/11/30/112342/1505552/934/korut-klaim-miliki-ribuan-sentrifugal-nuklir?881101934

Krisis Eropa Masih Tekan Wall Street

Selasa, 30/11/2010 07:03 WIB
Krisis Eropa Masih Tekan Wall Street
Nurul Qomariyah - detikFinance

Foto: Reuters

New York- Bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah dalam volume perdagangan yang sangat tipis. Investor masih mengkhawatirkan nasib krisis di Eropa, meski sudah ada kesepakatan untuk membantu Irlandia dengan bailout 85 miliar euro.

Namun pelemahan saham-saham berkurang seiring menguatnya saham-saham energi dan finansial di sesi akhir. Tipisnya volume perdagangan membuat perdagangan berjalan sangat volatile.

Pada perdagangan Senin (29/11/2010), indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup melemah 39,51 poin (0,26%) ke level 11.052,49. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 juga melemah 1,64 poin (0,14%) ke level 1.187,76 dan Nasdaq melemah 9,34 poin (0,37%) ke level 2.525,22.

Seiring krisis yang terjadi di Eropa, korelasi antara mata uang tunggal euro dan pergerakan saham dalam beberapa pekan terakhir sangat erat. Seiring krisis di Eropa, para pialang melepas euro dan saham-saham secara bersamaan.

"Katakan kepada saya kemana euro pergi dan saya akan mengatakan kepada Anda dimana pasar saham akan pergi," ujar Michael James, pialang senior Wedbush Morgan seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Selasa (30/11/2010).

Saham-saham energi menguat seiring lonjakan harga minyak mentah dunia hingga 2,3%. Saham Exxon Mobil tercatat menguat 0,3% menjadi US$ 69,45, setelah sebelumnya sempat melemah.

Sementara saham-saham perbankan juga mengalami perbaikan setelah sebelumnya merosot tajam. Indeks bank KBW naik 1% berkat kenaikan saham Bank of America hingga 1,5% menjadi US$ 11,31.

(qom/qom)

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/11/30/070353/1505317/6/krisis-eropa-masih-tekan-wall-street?f9911013

Ini Bukan Sekadar Perang Antar-Korea

Ini Bukan Sekadar Perang Antar-Korea

Minggu, 28 November 2010 | 07:35 WIB

AFP/JUNG YEON-JE

Tentara Korea di balik pagar kawat berduri di area penjagaan militer di Paju, dekat Zona Bebas Militer (DMZ) yang memisahkan Korea Utara dan Korea Selatan, Kamis (25/11). Korea Selatan akan memperkuat kehadiran militernya di lima pulau yang berbatasan dengan Korea Utara, menyusul serangan artileri mematikan Korea Utara, Selasa.

TERKAIT:

• PM Lee Periksa Pascaserangan Korut
• Presiden Korsel Dinilai Loyo dan Lamban
• Korut Tembaki Perbatasan
• Presiden Korsel Dinilai Loyo dan Lamban
• Perang Merugikan Asia

Simon Saragih

KOMPAS.com - Ketika kita berbincang-bincang dengan pengamat sejumlah geopolitik asal Jepang, ada sebuah pesan khusus. Pesannya adalah kebangkitan China harus diantisipasi dan diwaspadai. Ah, paling-paling itu ketakutan Jepang sendiri atau ini paling-paling taktik cuci otak ala Jepang.

Seiring dengan berjalannya waktu, pesan ini tidak bisa diabaikan. Walau mungkin tidak akan sepenuhnya benar, sikap berjaga-jaga dan penyusunan strategi adalah sebuah keharusan dalam konteks geopolitik terkini di Asia.

China tidak lagi semata-mata sebagai negara yang maju secara ekonomi, kedua terbesar setelah AS. Sejarah seperti terulang. Kebangkitan ekonomi pernah membuat Jerman dan Jepang menjadi kekuatan militer. Sejarah itu berpihak kepada China dengan kebangkitan ekonomi, yang sekaligus memperlihatkan kebangkitan militer.

Secara verbal, Presiden Hu Jintao dan Perdana Menteri Wen Jiabao selalu menegaskan, China tidak akan menjadi ancaman, tetapi kekuatan damai.

Wang Yuzhu, pengamat masalah internasional di Beijing, juga menegaskan hal itu, seperti dikutip di situs The Australian edisi 27 November. Dia adalah Direktur Kerja Sama Regional di Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing.

Wang mengatakan, ”China telah disalah mengerti oleh beberapa negara lain dan sebaliknya telah salah pengertian pada semua negara itu.” Dia menegaskan bahwa pemimpin di Asia Timur adalah AS.

Tak semua negara terlena dengan ucapan itu. Akio Kawato, pengamat geopolitik dan Profesor Universitas Waseda, Jepang, sudah memberi pesan seperti itu. Jepang telah merombak sistem pertahanan secara perlahan-lahan dari sekadar berstatus sebagai pasukan bela diri.

Seorang pengamat geopolitik Australia, Hugh White, menulis di Quarterly Essay sebuah artikel berjudul ”Perubahan Kekuatan: Masa Depan Australia antara Washington dan Beijing”, mengantisipasi kebangkitan China dengan status superpower, karena itu Australia harus mulai berpikir ulang tentang posisinya di dunia”.

ASEAN paham

Secara implisit, ASEAN pun tampaknya paham dengan semua itu. Kawasan ini telah merangkul India, Australia, AS, Rusia, dan tentu China. Tujuannya tentu agar ASEAN tidak menjadi subordinat dari salah satu superpower.

Tindakan ASEAN ini bukan sekadar basa-basi. Sejumlah negara di ASEAN sudah merasakan sinyal bahaya dengan kebangkitan ekonomi China dan juga kebangkitan militernya. Tentara Vietnam dan Filipina sudah sering berhadap-hadapan dengan tentara China menyangkut sengketa wilayah Spratly.

Faktor terbaru yang mengukuhkan itu adalah konflik yang makin membuat suasana genting antara Korea Utara dan Korea Selatan. Ketegangan ini bukan ketegangan an-sich di antara kedua Korea.

Tak akan sulit bagi Korsel meluluhlantakkan Korut, yang penduduknya saja kelaparan itu. Juga tak akan sulit secara militer bagi Korsel, apalagi dibantu AS, untuk melumat ”mulut besar” Korut.

Ini adalah proksi dari perseteruan AS-China di kawasan. Tak mungkin Korut, yang mayoritas pasokan pangannya dari China, berani bertindak sendiri.

Setelah Korut melakukan penembakan ke wilayah Korsel pada hari Selasa (23/11/2010) lalu, PM Wen tidak mengecam Korut. Bahkan, media China menilai serangan itu adalah akibat provokasi AS-Korsel karena melakukan militer di Laut Kuning.

Dalam perbandingan kekuatan militer sekarang ini, juga sulit bagi China-Korut melawan kolaborasi AS-Korsel jika terjadi perang, apalagi didukung dengan kekuatan Jepang, Australia, India, atau mungkin Rusia, teman dekat Korsel.

Namun, ke depan, dengan memudarnya pamor AS, dan menguatnya pamor China, bukan tak mungkin keadaan menjadi terbalik. Apa yang harus dilakukan? Wakil Menlu AS James Steinberg di situs The Japan Times, 18 Oktober lalu, menegaskan ”jaminan strategis” bagi sekutu-sekutunya di Asia. Ini adalah jaminan bagi kawasan untuk menghadapi China.

Sebenarnya China telah memberi manfaat ekonomi yang besar juga bagi dunia. Karena itu, ramai-ramai berbagai negara merangkul China menjadi teman. Namun, sinyal-sinyal menunjukkan hubungan ini tak saja akan ”berbuah manis”, tetapi bisa mendadak ”berbuah pahit”.

Jadi, waspadalah, ini bukan sekadar perang antar-Korea, Bung! Kepada siapa kita harus mengatakan itu? Tentu termasuk kepada Indonesia sebagai pemimpin ASEAN, yang lagi lunglai.

Tak lagi ada waktu sebenarnya bagi Indonesia untuk terlalu sibuk dengan dirinya sendiri. Indonesia bisa tertelan superpower jika tidak melakukan antisipasi, atau jika tak sadar denganChina’s irresistible power surge.

http://internasional.kompas.com/read/2010/11/28/07352886/Ini.Bukan.Sekadar.Perang.Antar-Korea

Kompas Cetak

Sumber :

Editor: Jimmy Hitipeuw

Islands, crabs and skirmishes: the Koreas' maritime mishaps

By Tim Lister, CNN

November 26, 2010 -- Updated 1205 GMT (2005 HKT)

South Korean navy vessels patrol on Thursday near Yeonpyeong island, close to waters disputed by both countries.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Asian islands are a common source of friction between countries in the region
• The Northern Limit Line was drawn in 1953
• North Korea wants to push the line further out to sea
• The dispute also involves fishing zones

(CNN) -- Across the seas and oceans of Asia, islands and the waters around them are frequently a source of dispute and even military confrontation. Japan and Russia squabble over Hokkaido; Japan and China claim sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea (Senkaku to the Japanese; Diaoyu to China). Several nations lay claim to the Spratley Islands. But the coastline of the Yellow Sea -- where North and South Korea meet -- is the most explosive of all.

The Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas has long been settled in the permafrost of a diplomatic cold war. Down to the last inch, the two sides know their limits. That's not so at sea, where the North and South have long disagreed on whose waters end where -- especially in the Yellow (or West) Sea, which is dotted with islands.

The South Korean warship Cheonan was torpedoed in March in this disputed area, leaving 46 sailors dead. The island of Yeonpyeong, the target of a North Korean artillery barrage this week that killed four people, is in the same area. And upcoming exercises involving the U.S. and South Korean navies will take place in this part of the Yellow Sea.

At the heart of the dispute is what's called the Northern Limit Line. In 1953, after the Korean War, the United Nations unilaterally drew this line three nautical miles from the North Korean coastline. That put five islands close to the coast under South Korean control. It also hemmed in the port of Haeju, the only deepwater harbor in the North that doesn't freeze in winter. What was supposed to be a temporary arrangement has become permanent in the absence of a full peace agreement. The Northern Limit Line is still in place today -- running close to the North Korean shoreline for about 100 miles.

Scene of the Korean attack

Global call for calm between Koreas

The Koreas clash

Map: N. Korea shells S. Korean island

Explainer: All eyes on North Korea

RELATED TOPICS

• North Korea
• South Korea

Pyongyang has never been happy about the arrangement, but only in the 1970s did it begin to challenge it. North Korea has subsequently proposed a different line -- one that would roughly extend the DMZ southwest out into the Yellow Sea, rather than hug the North Korean shoreline. A few years ago, in typically colorful language, the North labeled the NLL "an illegal and brigandish line drawn by the U.S. on our sacred territorial waters." But the South has always resisted Pyongyang's alternative line -- as it would have brought North Korea's maritime boundary closer to its main port of Incheon.

Now add the fact that these waters are important fishing and crab grounds. For North Korean fishermen especially, the blue crab season between June and September is an important source of income. Ironically, those crabs have a habit of migrating south during these months. So these waters are frequently crowded with boats from both countries -- as well as vessels from China, just to complicate the picture. Disputes over fishing rights have resulted in dozens of boat seizures. According to the South Korean Maritime Police, the North seized 36 boats in the Yellow Sea in the 1990s.

More recently, the coastal waters have seen armed clashes. The most serious of them were in 1999 and 2002, which led to loss of life. The North Koreans may not wish to risk a full-scale naval engagement -- its warships came off much worse in the 1999 skirmishes and the technological gap between the two fleets has only widened since. Last year, a South Korean warship fired on and reportedly damaged a North Korean vessel that was alleged to have crossed the Northern Limit Line, leading Pyongyang to condemn what it called "a grave armed provocation."

So the coastal waters of the Yellow Sea have long been the "theater" in which Pyongyang could most easily provoke a crisis, and most easily legitimize it. Added to which, such confrontations -- using artillery and patrol boats -- can be contained and managed. Nuclear threats tend to leave less room for maneuver.

In the wake of the latest incidents, both sides appear to be hardening their positions. South Korea has strengthened its rules of engagement in the Yellow Sea. Far from reducing the marines stationed on the five islands off North Korea's coast, as was planned, they will be reinforced. And there's plenty of pressure in the South Korean media for a hard line, with the conservative Chosun Ilbo claiming Thursday that "the military has been implementing reforms that weaken defense capabilities" on the islands.

Few analysts expect any compromise on the Northern Limit Line in the near future, given the overall deterioration in relations and the complex negotiations that would be necessary to find an alternative to what was meant to be a temporary solution nearly 60 years ago.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/25/koreas.maritime.explainer/index.html